Life expectancy progress stalls across Europe: Obesity, poor diet, and inactivity identified as key factors

The steady rise in life expectancy across Europe has stagnated since 2011, according to a new study from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and its research partners. The findings, published today in The Lancet Public Health, identify obesity, poor diet, and physical inactivity as major contributing factors, alongside the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Dramatic Shift in Life Expectancy Trends

Historically, advances in public health and medicine have led to consistent increases in life expectancy across Europe. However, the latest analysis suggests that this upward trend has significantly slowed, with some countries experiencing more pronounced declines than others. Of all the nations studied, England showed the most substantial stagnation in life expectancy improvements.

This shift signals a concerning reality: rather than anticipating longer lifespans than previous generations, many individuals may face the prospect of shorter lives. The study underscores the importance of prioritising healthy lifestyles from an early age, with researchers calling on governments to implement bold public health initiatives to reverse this trend.

Understanding the Underlying Causes

Professor Nick Steel, lead researcher from UEA’s Norwich Medical School, explained the significance of the findings:

“Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case.”

“From 1990 to 2011, reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancers continued to lead to substantial improvements in life expectancy. However, from 2011 onwards, these improvements slowed considerably, with significant variations between countries.”

The study identifies cardiovascular disease as the primary driver behind the slowdown in life expectancy improvements between 2011 and 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated the issue, causing an overall decline in life expectancy between 2019 and 2021.

One of the most alarming trends highlighted in the study is the increasing prevalence of major health risks, such as obesity, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol. Professor Steel noted:

“After 2011, major risks such as obesity, high blood pressure, and high cholesterol either increased or stopped improving in almost all countries.”

“Better cholesterol and blood pressure treatments have not been enough to offset the harms from obesity and poor diets.”

A Comprehensive Analysis of European Health Data

The study is based on data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)’s Global Burden of Disease 2021—the most extensive research initiative quantifying health loss across time and locations. This research draws on contributions from nearly 12,000 experts across more than 160 countries and territories.

Researchers compared changes in life expectancy, causes of death, and population exposure to risk factors across Europe during three key periods: 1990–2011, 2011–2019, and 2019–2021. The study included data from a broad range of European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales.

Have We Reached a Biological Limit to Longevity?

Despite the worrying decline in life expectancy progress, researchers argue that humans have not yet reached a biological ceiling for longevity. Professor Steel elaborated:

“Life expectancy for older people in many countries is still improving, showing that we have not yet reached a natural longevity ceiling.”

“Life expectancy mainly reflects mortality at younger ages, where we have ample opportunity to reduce harmful risks and prevent early deaths.”

“Comparing countries, national policies that improved population health were linked to better resilience to future shocks.”

The study highlights examples of nations that have maintained better life expectancy outcomes. Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium showed more resilience after 2011, benefiting from policies that reduced the impact of major risks for heart disease. In contrast, England and the other UK nations performed the worst after 2011 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, experiencing some of the highest rates of heart disease and cancer linked to poor diet.

“This suggests that stronger government policies are needed to reduce major health risks, including obesity, poor diet, and low physical activity—to improve population health over the long term,” Steel concluded.

Implications for Public Health Policy

Professor John Newton, from the European Centre for Environment and Human Health at the University of Exeter, echoed these concerns while also pointing to potential solutions:

“These results are a cause for concern, especially here in the UK, but also provide some hope. We should be concerned because many European countries, including the UK, are showing such poor progress. However, we should be hopeful because addressing the underlying causes of major illnesses appears to be effective—if only improvements in key risk factors can be sustained.”

Sarah Price, National Director of Public Health at NHS England, reinforced the importance of prevention:

“This important study reinforces that prevention is the cornerstone of a healthier society, and is exactly why it will be such a key part of the 10-Year Health Plan, which we are working on with the government.”

“The slowdown in life expectancy improvements, particularly due to cardiovascular disease and cancer, highlights the urgent need for stronger action on the root causes—poor diet, physical inactivity, and obesity.”

“The NHS is playing its part and has already helped hundreds of thousands of people to lose weight through our 12-week digital Weight Management Programme. Additionally, more than a million people a year receive a blood pressure check in NHS pharmacies, which is crucial for identifying cardiovascular issues and significantly improving overall health.”

“However, more action is needed across society because we cannot treat our way out of the obesity crisis—we need to stem it at the source.”

Future Directions for Public Health and Policy

The research, led by UEA in collaboration with the Global Burden of Disease Project at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (University of Washington), the University of Exeter, and the UK Department of Health and Social Care, presents a crucial opportunity for policymakers. The findings call for targeted interventions to address obesity, dietary health, and physical activity, with an emphasis on preventive measures rather than reactive treatments.

The study was funded in part by the Gates Foundation, and while the findings and conclusions represent those of the authors, they do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the UK Department of Health and Social Care or the Gates Foundation.

The full study, “Changing Life Expectancy in European Countries 1990–2021: A Sub-Analysis of Causes and Risk Factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,” is now available in The Lancet Public Health.