NHS to trial AI tool that predicts health risks and early death
The NHS in England is set to trial an innovative artificial intelligence (AI) tool designed to predict individuals’ risk of developing or worsening heart disease, as well as the likelihood of early mortality, through the use of electrocardiogram (ECG) readings. This cutting-edge technology, known as AI-ECG risk estimation (AIRE), represents a significant step forward in preventive healthcare, potentially enabling more precise treatment approaches and optimising NHS resources.
Developed by researchers at Imperial College London in collaboration with Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, AIRE is trained to interpret ECG results to forecast the progression of heart disease and identify individuals at heightened risk of early death. The research team used extensive datasets from international sources to train the AI model, allowing it to make predictive assessments regarding whether individuals might experience new health conditions, deteriorating heart health, or even mortality within a defined period.
The ECG, a commonly used test that records electrical signals in the heart, offers a visual representation of the electrical activity within and across the heart’s various chambers. The AIRE technology has been specifically developed to interpret these signals and assess the potential risk to an individual’s long-term health. Dr Fu Siong Ng, a reader in cardiac electrophysiology at Imperial College London and consultant cardiologist at both Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, emphasised the tool’s reliability, stating, “Our work has shown that this AI model is a credible and reliable tool that could, in future, be programmed for use in different areas of the NHS to provide doctors with relevant risk information.”
In a study published on 24 October 2024 in The Lancet Digital Health, researchers found that AIRE correctly classified individuals’ risk of mortality over a ten-year span in 78% of cases, categorising risk levels from high to low. These findings suggest the tool could play an instrumental role in identifying people at risk early on, allowing for more targeted healthcare interventions and potentially improving health outcomes.
Clinical trials aimed at evaluating the real-world effectiveness of AIRE are scheduled to commence in 2025, involving patients at both Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Chelsea and Westminster Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. These trials will assess whether the insights provided by AIRE can actively improve patient outcomes and aid clinical decision-making processes.
Dr Ng expressed optimism regarding AIRE’s potential impact on patient care and resource management within the NHS, explaining, “This could have a positive impact on how patients are treated, and ultimately improve patient longevity and quality of life. It could also reduce waiting lists and allow more efficient allocation of resources. We believe this could have major benefits for the NHS, and globally.” He further added, “The important next step is to test whether using these models can actually improve patient outcomes in clinical studies.”
Looking ahead, researchers at Imperial College London are hopeful that AIRE could become an integrated part of NHS services within the next five years. This predictive AI tool has the potential to transform how clinicians assess and respond to heart disease risks, moving beyond traditional ECG applications.
Professor Bryan Williams, the chief scientific and medical officer at the British Heart Foundation, which provided funding for the research, highlighted the significance of this advancement. “This large, exciting study offers a glimpse into how AI could be used to improve diagnosis of heart disease,” he said. “ECGs have been used to assess the heart for over a century, and this research has demonstrated the extraordinary power of AI to gain important health insights from a routine test.”
Professor Williams underscored the broader implications of the technology, noting that, “This could take the use of ECGs beyond what has previously been possible, by helping assess risk of future heart and health problems, as well as risk of death. We look forward to seeing how AI can be piloted in routine clinical practice and how this will help accelerate and inform clinical decision-making, ensuring patients receive the most timely and effective treatment and support.”
With its potential to reshape cardiovascular care and early mortality risk assessment, AIRE offers a promising advancement for the NHS and the global healthcare community alike.