Weight-loss pharmaceuticals could spur 1% increase in US GDP, Goldman Sachs suggests
In a recent analysis, Goldman Sachs posits that the extensive deployment of innovative weight-loss medications across the United States has the potential to catalyse a significant uplift in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by as much as 1% in the forthcoming years. This optimistic forecast is grounded in the anticipation that a reduction in obesity-related health issues could substantially enhance productivity within the workforce.
The market for these weight-loss medications is anticipated to burgeon, potentially reaching a staggering $100 billion annually by the decade’s end. Leading this burgeoning sector are pharmaceutical giants such as Novo Nordisk, the manufacturer of Ozempic, and Eli Lilly, the producer of Mounjaro. Both companies are at the forefront of developing a category of drugs known as GLP-1 agonists, which have garnered significant interest from various pharmaceutical firms. The projections by Goldman Sachs suggest that consumer uptake of GLP-1 agonists could surge, varying from 10 million to an ambitious 70 million by the year 2028.
The economists at Goldman Sachs elaborate on the potential economic ramifications of this increase in GLP-1 usage, linking it directly to anticipated declines in obesity rates. Citing academic research, they highlight the dual challenge posed by obesity: affected individuals are less likely to be employed and exhibit lower productivity levels when they are in the workforce. According to their analysis, an increase to 30 million users of weight-loss drugs could potentially boost the US GDP by 0.4%, with the potential for a 1% increase if user numbers reach 60 million.
However, the report has not been without its critics, especially from advocates of the body-positivity movement, who may view the report’s implications with scepticism or concern.
Moreover, the report underscores a broader wave of healthcare innovation, particularly highlighting the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in drug discovery processes, combined with the impact of GLP-1 agonists. Together, these advancements could elevate the US GDP by an additional 1.3%, translating to an economic boost of approximately $360 billion per annum at current exchange rates. The potential increase could range from 0.6% to 3.2%, with the effects expected to be more pronounced in the US compared to other developed nations, which generally exhibit better health outcomes.
In parallel, research into weight-loss drugs is expanding to explore their efficacy in treating a range of conditions, from alcohol dependency to dementia. Medications such as Ozempic and Wegovy, which contain the drug semaglutide, and another medication, liraglutide, used under various brand names for both diabetes and weight loss, have seen a surge in popularity. This is partly due to their proven capability to assist individuals in shedding more than 10% of their body weight. The potential for these drugs to confer additional health benefits is being actively investigated in new clinical trials, signalling a promising horizon for medical research and public health.
