More Than One in Four Adults Worldwide May Be Eligible for GLP-1 Weight-Loss Medicines, Global Analysis Suggests

Key Takeaways: 

• More than 27 percent of adults globally may be eligible for GLP-1 receptor agonists for weight management, based on pooled data from 99 countries.
  
• Eligibility is highest among women, older adults, and people living in low- and middle-income countries, raising significant questions around access and health equity.
  
• Researchers emphasise that medicines alone are not sufficient, and sustained investment in prevention and non-pharmacological obesity care remains essential.
  
  
  

A growing global obesity challenge

The worldwide prevalence of obesity has more than doubled over the past three decades, accompanied by sharp rises in weight-related conditions such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and several cancers. This escalating public health challenge places increasing strain on healthcare systems and national economies across the globe.

Against this backdrop, a new international study suggests that glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, commonly referred to as GLP-1 medications, could play a substantial role in addressing obesity and its related complications at scale. The analysis was co-led by investigators from Mass General Brigham and aimed to estimate how many adults worldwide might benefit from these medicines.

Large-scale global data analysis

Researchers from Mass General Brigham collaborated with colleagues at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis and Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health to pool household health survey data from 99 countries, collected between 2008 and 2021.

The final dataset included 810,635 adults aged 25 to 64 years, selected based on the availability of key clinical measures, including:

• Body mass index
• Blood pressure
• Diabetes biomarkers
• Diagnostic history of hypertension and diabetes
  

Eligibility for GLP-1 treatment was defined using established clinical thresholds. Adults were considered eligible if they had:

• A BMI greater than 30, or
• A BMI greater than 27 in the presence of hypertension, diabetes, or both
  
  
  

One in four adults eligible worldwide

Using these criteria, the researchers found that 27 percent of adults globally would be eligible for GLP-1 medications for weight management. Notably, around four-fifths of eligible individuals lived in low- and middle-income countries, highlighting a potential mismatch between need and access.

Eligibility varied substantially by region:

• Europe and North America showed the highest rates at 42.8 percent
• The Pacific Islands followed closely at 41.0 percent
  

Differences were also observed across demographic groups:

• Women were more likely to be eligible than men, at 28.5 percent versus lower rates among men
• Older adults showed markedly higher eligibility at 38.3 percent, compared with 17.9 percent among younger adults
  

The findings were published as a research letter in The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

Rethinking obesity through biology

Commenting on the findings, co-senior author Jennifer Manne-Goehler, MD, ScD, a physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Mass General Brigham, highlighted the paradigm shift represented by GLP-1 therapies.

“There has never been such a potentially transformational and scalable tool for obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other health-related complications of obesity.”

She also reflected on the historical framing of obesity as a personal failing rather than a biologically driven disease.

“For so many decades, we told everyone the problem was you – you need to move more and eat less, then you will not struggle with this problem. GLP-1 receptor agonists have allowed us to really understand that biology is much more powerful than that, and ‘eat less, move more’ is just an oversimplified way to think about things.”

Global interest meets practical constraints

The potential of GLP-1 medicines has already been recognised by the World Health Organization, which is actively exploring ways to make these treatments more widely available as standard therapies. However, translating this promise into real-world impact depends on understanding the scale of need and addressing significant barriers to access.

Corresponding author Sang Gune K. Yoo, MD, who conducted the work while a research fellow in cardiology at Washington University School of Medicine, noted that the findings were consistent with global obesity trends.

“Given the steadily increasing prevalence of obesity, it is not surprising that our analysis found that more than one quarter of adults around the world may be eligible for this medication.”

He cautioned, however, that important questions remain unanswered.

“This medication has the potential to help many individuals, although further research is needed to better understand its long-term safety and sustainability. Access remains a major challenge as these medications are difficult to obtain in many settings. Most importantly, we must continue to invest in and develop effective non-pharmacological strategies for the prevention and treatment of obesity, an area where substantial gaps remain.”

Equity at the centre of global implementation

The study also underscores profound equity considerations. Eligibility was disproportionately high among women and people living in regions with limited healthcare resources.

Manne-Goehler highlighted the urgency of addressing these disparities.

“These socioeconomic and gender eligibility percentiles are especially staggering. As of last year, type 2 diabetes was the top cause of death for women in South Africa. There are parts of the world where women can really benefit from these medicines, and it is our job to see through their implementation.”

Co-lead author Felix Teufel, MD, from Emory University’s Rollins School of Public Health, framed access to GLP-1 therapies as a broader ethical issue.

“Global access to GLP-1s is a question of health equity. The goal is to ensure large-scale access for people who would benefit most – not just those easiest to reach.”

Beyond medicines alone

While the findings point to a potentially transformative role for GLP-1 medications in global obesity care, the authors stress that pharmacological approaches cannot replace comprehensive prevention and treatment strategies. Addressing obesity at scale will continue to require sustained investment in public health, supportive environments, and evidence-based, non-pharmacological interventions alongside new medical therapies.

CCH insight:

This study reminds us of the scale of the obesity pandemic. There are more than 1 billion people estimated to be living with obesity, according to the World Health Organisation – most of whom could in theory benefit from GLP-1 medications. The priority should be to provide access for those who are in greatest need, rather than those who can afford to pay for them. The development of oral GLP-1s is a big step, as this will increase access and bring prices down, but there is a very long way to go.